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Middle East tensions

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What's your view/prediction on what will happen? Specifically Iran/Israel. Will the Israelis attack? If so, will they wait until post-US elections? Will it happen before and the US step in so the democrats garner more of the jewish vote? Or will NATO (aka the US) move into to Syria to remove Iran's closest allies in an attempt to destabilise the regime? Given Ahmadinejad is now in a lame duck and Iran is just waiting for the more radical and anti-US/Israel Ayatollah to take control in the 2013 Presidential elections, is it more likely that Israel/US move sooner rather than later?

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The US and Israel will never invade Iran or goto war with it, for starters they'll have the chinks and vodka drinkers goin batshit at the next security council meeting let alone the sheer cost of it, it's all bangin on chest shite

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Committing US troops to conflict in Syria before the election would be political suicide for Obama. Again, after the election, too much time will have passed for any credible stall to justify US/NATO intervention, unless Assad mounts another offensive big enough to justify it.

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Can we have this RJ cunt banned please?

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Harsh nunez, harsh. No need to call him a cunt.

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yeeeeooo I think that's my first Hudson board ban request! Cheers nunez you fuckin spo

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i think there are elements from both sides that benefit massively from the persistent 'on the brink' nature of relations in the middle east. they use the outside threat to justify many domestic policies. going to war is something they will both want to avoid but playing a game like this is dangerous and always has the potential to escalate. in the end there are too many variables to control it effectively. i do worry that global realities such as the dire budget problems of the US and the squeeze on vital resources will tip towards a zero sum game.

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there was a lot of talk about israel launching an attack on iran in april....

so far nothing but im not holding my breath.

wartard.blogspot.com is a great read for this sorta thing

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When's the next Israeli general election? Expect some sort of attack on a neighbouring country around that time.

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Kev, we all know you've typed out several responses and decided not to post them at the last minute. i can literally see you in here. mon now. Whats happenin?

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Hahahahaha :¬D

RJ macready is pretty much on the money. The US has had it's day in global bullying and Israel would be very unwise to start a war with Iran. They are no push over and Hezbollah showed weaknesses in the IDF in the 2006. Hezbollah is armed by Iran of course and is basically a guerilla army so Iran could well take them on.

A justified assault on Syria? Explain to me why no one is huffing and puffing about Bahrain, Indonesia, Sudan, Congo......... Geo-political manoeuvring at it's most blatant and worst.

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And the covert assassinations will continue of course.

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And now to be educated by a political expert.

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And hardly peep will you see in our bullshit main media's about anything like that, of course. I can't even watch C4 news without a fist of salt now though they thankfully stress when they can't verify sources now.

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Get fucked Shane you wee wretch. Nothing changes eh!

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Too easy. :) Have a nice day.

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My disdain for you? Yes, it comes easily but it passes very quickly like a dump. If you've nothing of any worth to add, why don't you keep your snide wee comments to yourself. Horrible specimen.

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Lets see how quickly it passes my bearded friend.

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I'll not watch the BBC news after their scandalous behaviour to Darcus Howe when interviewing him about the tottenham riots.

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I like Darcus.

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Alot of behind the scenes negotiations going around this issue, think mossad chief was meeting US officials late January regarding this and I would guess Koffi Annon is currently going between the US/Israel and the Chinese/Russia. Think it might be fullish for Obama to do something so drastic before the elections, then again the next president is hardly going to do anything different than what hes told to do

From some of the stuff I'm picking up on it seems theres now a desperate push into many african and other thirdworld nations to control their natural resources

Fullout war doesnt make sense but could be a a real possibility, already we are experiencing Food wars, Trade wars and Currency wars amongst others so its not like everyone is getting along nicely

If the state of the world and economies keep dropping as they are, fullout war could be exactly what each superpower nation feel may be needed. You just have to look back at our history to see that it has a nasty history of repeating itself.

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farole in somalia is due to become president of the puntland region and to declare major oil finds in the region, protected from dissidents by US troops. the UN passed a law saying that its ok for the ships to attack somalian ports if they suspect they are harbouring pirates.

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the US/Israel would absolutely crush Iran if they needed to. Didn't know that Ahmadinejad was a lame duck and Ayatollah was taking over next year. Interesting.

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Not as simple as history repeating itself. There are much bigger problems on the horizon concerning most of our precious (and finite) resources, add water into your list for many countries. The oil problem is escalating (will be priced out if something drastic isn't done) and armies do not move without oil. No one wants nuclear war....... Globalisation has changed everything. One big nation falls and it creates a domino effect.

Hard to call what's coming really but in my opinion, we are in for big changes and it will not be for the better initially, if ever.

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what headrush said.

they would smash them from the air. cost a fortune but doubt that matter with the sort of money they've been throwing at Afghanistan and Iraq

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Air strikes solve nothing as they have found out in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran can now cause serious problems for the west aswell by instigating attacks on their worldwide bases, not least in the middle east. Iran has clout these days.

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really don't believe that at all. they get destroyed by the yanks/Jews.

air power would weaken them massively. I'm not taking about invading but would be enough to make them think twice about any moves against israel. throw in the nuclear attack potential and I don't think they'd make a move tbh.

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The US will not make the mistake they made with Iraq. They would never get support from the UN to support the Israelis if they decided to attack Iran. Unlike the previous President, this one will not ignore the UN's wishes; too many bridges were burned during the last regime. Israel is a tricky one. Being surrounded on all sides by States that frankly, don't like them makes them feel threatened. Being the occupier of what many see as the Holy Land puts them in an awkward position. I think Israel are chomping at the bit to make an example and show the area that they are a power to be reckoned with. Iran may be giving them the excuse to do that. But if they did attack I think they will be on their own.

Regarding the resource issues, we are fucked. We haven't moved quickly enough on renewable energy. Our only option is Nuclear I think. Nobody is putting the money into thorium that they should be. This new generation of reactor is fantastic technology, a hell of a lot safer, has significantly less waste but expensive to implement. Oil is going to run low, the middle east has us by the balls. Look how people reacted a few weeks ago when there was the possibility of a strike. They were like vultures around the petrol stations. Imagine petrol and energy rationing was put into force. It would be like something out of Mad Max.

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I've heard ex US generals, ex mossad and various people oin the know talking about how hard it is to harm Iran without catastrophic consequences. Russia today has good people on it for gaining a more balanced and in my opinion. more balanced view. The US and Israel have to pull their horns in or it's WW3 on the cards.

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Fuck my typing.

Nuclear technology could work as long as they can take it away from coastal areas as the water turbine powered ones are very dangerous ie Fukashima. There's many technologies out there that could solve alot of problems but the people with the power these days are moving too slow.

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Fuck up soulsparc.

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Iran may have some 'clout' but they'd still get their arses handed to them. Air strikes worked fine in Iraq, disabling air defences etc, it was on the ground and the aftermath that caused the real problems. Air strat worked fine in Libya too and that was mostly the frogs and the Brits. I doubt Afghanistan even had air defences, never mind an airforce. It's not comparable to Iran anyway. There is no way the Yanks would invade of course - Iran can mobilise over a million troops at short enough notice. Then there are millions of that government run militia. Not to mention that the Americans do not want and cannot afford another war at the moment.

But if it came to it they'd fill the Gulf of Oman / Persian Gulf with aircraft carriers, destroyers, subs and whatever else. UAE, Bahrain, Quatar & co. would also be used for bases. Iran would get mullered.

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you don't half talk some shite sparcy.

wtf is your problem with jews anyway? you're no better than a muslim bashing EDL meat head.

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i.imgur.com/DuNvF.gif

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Attacking Iran would be a massive mistake for the US and very unlikely in my opinion. Israel might do it and could prob count on US support after the fallout. Syria could set the region on fire, there is no doubt Iran could inflict serious damage on anyone.

Didn't i see something about hemp being a good source of energy? Who knows what will happen.

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^^Brilliant. Genuine LOL at that gif.

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It's just not that simple man. China is ruling the roost for the moment and Iran is one of their main supplies of oil. The chinese can really mess with the US, as can the russians.

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I don't agree that China is such a strong position. They're facing rising CPI and falling growth (the World Bank reduced 2012 growth forecast last week to 8.2% and the IMF cut the medium term current account surplus from 7.2% to 4.3%, GDP growth fell from 8.9% to 8.1% last quarter), strong pressure to let their currency float freely (they already widened the daily trading band to 1% at the weekend) which will incrrease the cost of their exports abroad (US/EU accounts for 40% of Chinese export purchases). Land acquisiton dropped by 14%, Shanghai luxury home prices dropped 40% YTD, foreign direct investment has fallen for the fifth straight month.

Plus, the oil thing isn't that simple. They have been bolstering their SPR massively this year even with prices so high (which is very unusual for them). Q1 crude imports are up 11% (almost 6mio barrels a day in March) which suggests stocking before full Iranian sanctions come into place. It seems more to be linked to freight logistics than threats from the US/UN on not meeting sanctions (as re-insurance companies in the west are refusing to offer protection on vessels carrying Iranian crude) but still a sign that foresee a hit to supply.

Considering 17mio barrels a day come through Hormuz Strait, the Israel/Iran situation is currently the most politically critical issue facing every nation. The US already have 3 aircraft carriers and a warfare ship in the Arabian Sea but there's no chance they will make any move against Iran unless Israel does first. Both Netanyahu and Barak (defense minister) travelled to Washington last month and, according to Israeli media, the US was told they will not be informed before any attack but that they will not attack before the autumn (which conincidentally is just before the US election).

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There is no way Israel can stop any potential nuclear attack from Iran.. their weaponry is too spread out, too protected underground etc. Israel fully accept this, so they will not be taking on Iran.

Syria surely will have a no fly zone imposed ...

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The security council would completely veto any action on Iran as they have done with Syria and the US will not go into any more wars without total backing from the UN. The only thing that could kick-start a war is Iran attacking Israel first and as mad as the mullahs are they aren’t mad enough to start a war with Israel that would give the US, Britain and everyone else the full go ahead to kick ass.

As for The Iranians putting up much of a fight? Fucking please.. the US could park carrier groups right on the coastline of Iran and bomb it all to hell and back, no need to worry about getting airspace agreements and what’s that the Iranians are launching missiles into Israel… simple, Israel retaliates with 1 nuke on a small nondescript town and its game over. It aint gonna happen.

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www.haaretz.com/print-...

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I said that for the moment, china are in command........ They do indeed have huge problems on the horizon but they are being very clever with their energy move. They are the world leader in renewable energy at the mo, not least in solar energy.

As i said, the future does not look rosey all round.

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And RJ, that's end game your talking about if the US decided to pull moves like that.

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then again, its not just certain parties in the west that would like to see a war with iran, there is quite a few countries in the middle east that would also like to see iran's nuclear ambitions knocked down a peg.. thats the problems with arabs, not only do they hate the west, the jews, naked skin etc.. they also absolutely fucking loathe each other as well..

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im sure the Saudi's would positively welcome a regime change in Iran

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Iranians aren't Arabs.

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Obama will not attack iran.. he's been playing up to the right wing of the US media to get reelceted... but veering right he has successfully pushed the republicans to an extreme right position which will alienate moderate voters.... giving himself space to try to let the ecnomy recover a bit. He can spend his second term ushering in an era world peace.

Attacking Iran is a dumb move ... it unites the country against its enemies. Obama isn't stupid... diplomacy is his best option and he knows it. Attacking iran will send oil prices sky high.... plunging the world economy deeper into0 recession and ruining his chance to get any work done

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I take it your talking about the sunni/shia divide here, RJ?

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not just to do with the usual sunni/shia bullshit but also to do with the Saudis own particular brand of religous nonsense wahabi or whatever you call it

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The saudi's are hated for their pandering to the west, for the most.

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the way i see it is. you listen to how much balls it all is. then you stop listening.

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